Andrew Imbrie, '',British American Security Information Council (BASIC), 25 March 2008

EXCERPT: "NATO's upcoming summit in Bucharest this April comes at a particularly challenging moment in the Alliance's history. In Afghanistan, NATO forces face a resurgent Taliban in the south, widespread corruption across the country, and steady growth in the illicit narcotics industry. Closer to home, the Alliance must contend with the prospect of renewed violence in the Balkans and an increasingly strained relationship with Russia over missile defense, Kosovo, Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE), and NATO's open door policy to the East. Broader 'theological' issues are also at stake, with critics on both sides of the Atlantic calling attention to NATO's lack of political cohesion, outmoded strategic concept, and poor coordination with other institutional actors, including the European Union and United Nations.

"NATO's greatest and most important challenge remains Afghanistan. In BASIC's 2007 baseline study of the NATO-led International Security and Assistance Force (ISAF), we noted that success in Afghanistan would be measured in 'fewer civilian casualties, a decrease in the areas in which the Taliban operate, and further progress of the reconstruction missions which form the backbone of the ISAF mandate.' By these standards, the past year has not been a success. Civilian casualties have increased by 30 percent, the Taliban have infiltrated into Afghanistan's central and western provinces, and the reconstruction teams have suffered from a fractured organizational structure. This study, which builds on our 2007 assessment, provides a qualitative analysis of the current state and sources of the Taliban-led insurgency. Limited in its scope to the activities of NATO-ISAF, the paper concludes with a set of policy recommendations to guide NATO allies and partner countries in their efforts to establish security, train Afghan national forces, and improve civil-military cooperation."

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